The Need for Better Climate Policy in the US
A good friend recently asked for my opinion on how we (as the United States) can convince China to reduce its carbon emissions. The short answer: we need better domestic climate policy before telling China what to do.
The long answer:
The question of countries’ responsibility of reducing carbon emissions goes all the way to the Kyoto Protocol in 1992 — the first international treaty drafted to reduce global GHG emissions — when developed nations basically gave developing nations (India, China) a free pass and agreed to enforce the treaty on industrialized nations only. It is now considered a failure and missed opportunity, but does represent one of the most difficult issues around climate change negotiations: since the majority of the GHG emissions driving climate change were created by the developed countries — shouldn’t it be their responsibility to clean it up?
Many climate negotiations later, it’s clear that the correct approach would have been to mandate sustainable development for all nations regardless of their level of industrialization. But here we are. Major steps were taken with the Paris Agreement, and many more steps to come, but I really believe it all comes back to policy. And I don’t think US has done a good job on the policy front. The main reason we’ve reduced emissions in the US is the transition from coal to natural gas in the power sector (largest % of the emissions reduction). This is the case in a lot of the G20 countries actually. Natural gas is not carbon neutral and therefore does not address the core issue of climate change; that is, is the urgent need to remove trillions of tons carbon from the Earth’s atmosphere before the planet warms by 1.5 degrees Celsius. In my opinion, therefore, we in the US need to do a lot better on the removal of carbon — and the policy that drives this transition — before we try to tell China what to do.
The first thing we have to address as a nation is Trump pulling the US out of the Paris Agreement. Without the US at the international negotiating table, it is very unlikely any impactful climate change policy will be agreed upon (and we not only need nations to agree on targets, but to accept potential legal consequences if those targets are not met). The US is still the world leader, and therefore what will motivate other nations to change is the US leading by example and making significant policy commitments on climate change.
Second, we need to renew tax credits for wind and solar that are expiring here in the US. These tax credits helped to dramatically bring down the cost of wind and solar technologies so that their use could be more widespread. 45Q is landmark (bipartisan) legislation on carbon capture that passed in the House and Senate in 2018; carbon capture is a crucial technology for reducing carbon emissions at the industrial level. The legislation has been stuck with Trump’s Treasury Department for two years without explanation. We need to get these regulations passed so that they can have the same stimulatory effect on carbon capture technology that the tax credits for wind and solar did.
Third, while the Green New Deal has been over-politicized, we really do need to pass comprehensive climate change policy in the US at the national level. One problem is we are the only country in the world that has a ruling political party that denies climate change, so any climate change policy discussions are immediately contentious. China is actually ahead of the US from a national policy perspective (many external factors driving that), as last year they instituted a policy to have renewables reach 20% of primary energy consumption by 2030. We haven’t hit that threshold in the US and there isn’t any national guidance — although states like NY and CA are leading the way on a local level with significant commitments by 2040/50. There is also a bill stuck at the Senate level to create a national Climate Bank, which would increase investing in and financing of carbon reduction/green technologies and help stimulate and grow these industries. That needs to pass ASAP.
Finally, as a nation we need to stop subsidizing the oil, gas, and coal industries and let them fail if market forces are driving them towards failure. There isn’t complete data, but the US potentially spends as much as $640B subsiding these industries annually (2017 IMF report). By contrast the US subsidies to renewables represent about 3% of this. Any government subsidies should tilt heavily toward carbon reduction and removal at this point.
